Bitcoin MVRV Signals Bullish Breakout Amid Correction Risks

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

• Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is currently between 2.32 and 2.36, indicating higher market valuation compared to the last moved price.
• Historical data reveals that when the MVRV ratio approaches or exceeds 2.4, market volatility often ensues, prompting analysts to warn of potential corrections.
• Recent derivatives market data shows a bearish sentiment with long-to-short liquidations increasing significantly.
• Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin continues its current trend, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 may indicate the end of the current bull cycle.
• A move past the MVRV resistance level of 2.93 could lead to further gains, while a drop below could stabilize the market or indicate a correction.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has drawn attention following the cryptocurrency’s recent increase. As of June 6, 2025, Bitcoin is trading above $103,000, after having reached an all-time high near $111,000 in late May[1]. The current MVRV ratio is between 2.32 and 2.36, higher than its 365-day simple moving average of 2.14[2].

The MVRV ratio measures the total market capitalization against the aggregate price at which all coins were last moved (realized value). Historically, when MVRV approaches or exceeds 2.4, volatility often follows. During previous surges, such as those in October 2021 and in March and November 2024, the MVRV ratio breaking above this level was followed by significant corrections[3]. With the ratio now nearing this threshold, some analysts suggest the likelihood of a short-term correction is increasing[4].

Recent data from derivatives markets supports this cautious perspective. Over a recent 24-hour period, long-to-short liquidations rose to nearly $198 million, while short liquidations totaled $12.78 million[5]. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives declined by 3%, reaching $24.83 billion[6]. The long-to-short ratio dropped to 0.93, pointing to a bearish sentiment among traders[7]. In addition, the open interest-weighted funding rate decreased to 0.0034% from a recent high of 0.0068%, suggesting reduced bullish leverage in the market[8].

Despite these signals, analysts have noted the possibility of continued upward momentum. If current trends in price and MVRV continue, late Q3 to early Q4 of 2025 may see the conclusion of the current bull cycle[9]. Observers are watching the MVRV resistance level at 2.93, which halted the last major rally. A move above this point could open up further gains, while remaining below it might signal a period of correction or market stabilization[10].

At present, analysts are monitoring key technical levels and caution that a break below important supports could result in a decline of up to 15% from current prices[11]. As the MVRV ratio approaches its historical resistance, market participants expect increased volatility, with uncertainty about the direction of the next significant move.

---

1. CoinJournal, June 2025, “Bitcoin at $104K but Falling MVRV Ratio Hints at Short-Term Correction” / Pintu, June 2025, “Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New Record—Will the Uptrend Continue in June 2025?”
2. Pintu, June 2025, “Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New Record—Will the Uptrend Continue in June 2025?”
3. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
4. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
5. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
6. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
7. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
8. The Crypto Basic, May 30, 2025, “Bitcoin Slips Below $106K—Rising MVRV and Derivatives Data Hint at Deeper Correction”
9. Bitcoin Magazine, “Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential,” 2025
10. Pintu, June 2025, “Bitcoin (BTC) Hits a New Record—Will the Uptrend Continue in June 2025?”
11. CoinJournal, June 2025, “Bitcoin at $104K but Falling MVRV Ratio Hints at Short-Term Correction”